RIT researchers create interactive graphs to simulate COVID-19 spread

Henrietta, N.Y. (WHAM) - RIT is predicting how fast COVID-19 can spread, and students are helping break it down to a science: computer science that is!

Thomas Kinsman, a senior lecturer for the department of computer science, said he and his graduate students have been working on two interactive models to show how simple actions and scenarios can impact the spread of COVID-19.

"With a couple hundred lines of code, you can simulate an epidemic. Computer science can save lives," Kinsman said. "Using these simulations, we can simulate and see how bad things are getting and what need to be put back under control. A little bit of computer science can help us see a long ways."

Kinsman said the first model is an education prototype, where anyone can simulate how mask-wearing and the number of people around you can increase or decrease coronavirus spread over a span of days.

He said there are even unstable points where slight differences could make a huge difference.

"The simple model is about educating people. It's saying there are some things that are in your control. When the rest of the world is out of control, there are still some things that are in your control and you must live your life as best you can," Kinsman said.

The second model is more complex and puts more factors into consideration.

It simulates how quickly a spike in COVID-19 can be controlled and how it could affect hospital rates and ICUs, based on vaccine availability and the number of active cases.

"The more complicated model that our grad students put together would be used by decision-makers, county executives, people who are aware of those scientific, more sophisticated models," says Kinsman. "Using the models, we can find little sensitive points where the world is very sensitive to slight changes and that will help the decision-makers decide to make choices. When do you lockdown? When do you shut down the economy?"