Mathematical Methods in Counterterrorism

Abstracts

Responding to Terrorism: Risk Perceptions, Risk Communication and Societal Impacts

William Burns
Decision Research
Center for Risk and Economic Analysis of Terrorism Events (CREATE)

Abstract:

The events of September 11th and the anthrax attacks that closely followed changed the way we view the threat of terrorism. Hurricane Katrina and more recently the financial crisis accomplished much the same with respect to natural disasters and our economy. During times of crisis we pause to evaluate our state of readiness, and ability to respond to the risks we face. Catastrophic events are costly whether they result from nature, technological accidents, or terrorism, and their impacts often go well beyond the direct damages of the immediate crisis. As a consequence, over the last four decades researchers have studied risk from many vantage points. Research will be described that seeks to identify factors that contribute to timely and effective community intervention in response to a terrorist strike in an urban area. To examine public reaction, a system dynamics model was constructed using survey and interview data as well as expert assessment to examine how a community might respond to a terrorist attack. Output from the systems model will be presented. Implications for how we communicate about terrorist threats will be discussed.

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