Mathematical Methods in Counterterrorism

Abstracts

Understanding Terrorist Organizations with a Dynamic Model

Alexander Gutfraind
Center for Applied Mathematics
Cornell University

Abstract:

Terrorist organizations change over time because of processes such as recruitment and training as well as counterterrorism (CT) measures, but the effects of these processes are typically studied qualitatively and in separation from each other. Seeking a more quantitative and integrated understanding, we constructed a simple dynamic model where equations describe how these processes change an organization's membership. Analysis of the model yields a number of intuitive as well as novel findings. Most importantly it becomes possible to predict whether counterterrorism measures would be sufficient to defeat the organization. Furthermore, we can prove in general that an organization would collapse if its strength and its pool of foot soldiers decline simultaneously. In contrast, a simultaneous decline in its strength and its pool of leaders is often insufficient and short-termed. These results and others like them demonstrate the great potential of dynamic models for informing terrorism scholarship and counterterrorism policy-making.

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