Mathematical Methods in Counterterrorism

Abstracts

Identification of a Common Group Dynamics underlying Recent Wars and Terrorism

Neil Johnson
Physics Department
University of Miami

Abstract:

We identify a common dynamical pattern underlying the evolution of insurgent warfare -- such as the ongoing conflicts in Iraq, Colombia and Afghanistan and global terrorism. Our work suggests that these violent activities are being carried out in a generic way, irrespective of individuals' specific origin, geographic location, ideology, and religious issues. In each case, the insurgency resembles a similar soup of continually evolving attack units. Our findings suggest that the observed dynamics emerge as a consequence of how humans naturally 'do' asymmetric warfare. Having established the quantitative power of our model, we use it to predict the duration of such human conflict, and test out the consequences of different intervention strategies.

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