Mathematical Methods in Counterterrorism

Abstracts

Regional Capabilities Performance Assessment for Homeland Security

William McGill
College of Information Sciences & Technology
Penn State

Abstract:

It is standard practice within most US regions and locales to mobilize publicly-funded resources in responding to and recovering from the effects of adverse initiating events afflicting its citizens. This presentation discusses the use of fuzzy systems to characterize the relationship between the performance of region risk mitigation capabilities (e.g., response and recovery) and the potential for loss attributed to plausible adverse initiating events. In particular, the 37 capabilities described in the Department of Homeland Security’s Target Capabilities List v2.0 are leveraged to develop an approximate functional relationship that relates their individual effectiveness to their collective ability to reduce the risk. The details of this model are described and demonstrated via a simple example.

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