Mathematical Methods in Counterterrorism

Abstracts

Collective Violence and Repression: Making Use of the Opposing Forces Diffusion Model

Daniel Myers
University of Notre Dame

Abstract:

The Opposing Forces Diffusion model (OFD) proposes that the observed frequency of collective political violence is a function of two underlying diffusion processes: The diffusion of a provocation ideology and the diffusion of a repression ideology. Simulation and empirical data demonstrate that when modeling a wave using early adopter data, the OFD introduces far less error into predictions of the subsequent action cycle than do prior diffusion models. It therefore produces a much greater capacity to effectively intervene during the early stages of a violence wave and change the course of the action wave. This paper reviews the model and the evidence supporting this claim, and concludes by discussing the different ways that action may be suppressed or encouraged by either blocking or facilitating the diffusion processes underlying the wave.

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