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Mathematical Methods in Counterterrorism


Thursday, March 12

9:00am-9:05am Welcoming Remarks
Benn Tannenbaum, AAAS
9:05am-9:30amResponding to Terrorism: Risk Perceptions, Communication and Societal Impacts
William Burns, Center for Risk and Economic Analysis of Terrorism Events
9:30am-9:40am Questions & Discussion
9:40am-10:05am Bioterrorism Risk Probabilistic Risk Analysis
Barry Charles Ezell, Old Dominion University
10:05am-10:15am Questions & Discussion
10:15am-10:40am Network Science at West Point
Col. Steve Horton, United States Military Academy, West Point
10:40am-10:50am Questions & Discussion
10:50am-11:00am Break
11:00am-11:25am Covert Affiliation Networks
Roy Lindelauf, Tilburg University and Netherlands Defense Academy
11:25am-11:35am Questions & Discussion
11:35am-12:00pm Quantifying Terrorism Risk under the Obama Administration
Gordon Woo, Risk Management Solutions, London
12:00pm-2:15pm Lunch
2:15pm-2:40pm The VAST Contests - Mathematical Challenges
Georges Grinstein, University of Massachusetts Lowell
2:40pm-2:50pm Questions & Discussion
2:50pm-3:15pm CrimeFighter: A Toolbox for Counterterrorism
Uffe Kock Wiil, University of Southern Denmark
3:15pm-3:25pm Questions & Discussion
3:25pm-3:50pm Understanding Terrorist Organizations with a Dynamic Model
Alexander Gutfraind, Cornell University
3:50pm-4:00pm Questions & Discussion
4:00pm-4:15pm Break
4:15pm-4:40pm Algorithmic Prediction of Terrorism Surges: Non-linear dynamics approach
Vladimir Keilis-Borok, University of California, Los Angeles
4:40pm-4:50pm Questions & Discussion
4:50pm-5:15pm Bayesian Modeling of Group Structure in Dynamic Networks
Jim Ferry, Metron Inc.

Friday, March 13

9:00am-9:05am Welcoming Remarks
9:05am-9:30amCollective Violence and Repression: Making Use of the Opposing Forces Diffusion Model
Daniel Myers, University of Notre Dame
9:30am-9:40am Questions & Discussion
9:40am-10:05am Identification of a Common Group Dynamics underlying Recent Wars And Terrorism
Neil Johnson, University of Miami
10:05am-10:15am Questions & Discussion
10:15am-10:40amCommunications and Security in Terrorist Networks: A graph-theoretic model
Georg Gunther, Memorial University of Newfoundland, Canada
10:40am-10:50am Questions & Discussion
10:50am-11:00am Break
11:00am-11:25am The Mathematical Challenges to Knowledge Systems Technologies for the Intelligence Community
Cliff Joslyn, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
11:25am-11:35am Questions & Discussion
11:35am-12:00pm Knowledge to Action: DHS's Challenge for the Mathematical Community
Jennifer O'Connor, Department of Homeland Security
12:00pm-2:25pm Lunch
2:25pm-2:50pm Measuring Confidence Intervals in Link Discovery: A Bootstrap Approach
Jafar Adibi, PricewaterhouseCoopers, LLP
2:50pm-3:00pm Questions & Discussion
3:00pm-3:25pm Inference and Interdiction in a Terror Queue Model
Ed Kaplan, Yale University
3:25pm-3:35pm Questions & Discussion
3:35pm-4:00pm Regional Capabilities Performance Assessment for Homeland Security
William McGill, Penn State
4:00pm-4:10pm Questions & Discussion
4:10pm-4:35pm What Order Theory Can Tell You About Comparing Apples and Oranges: The Problem of Selecting the Most Probable Target
George Markowsky, University of Maine