Math Modeling Seminar: Mathematics of the Dynamics and Control of the COVID-19 Pandemic

Mathematics of the Dynamics and Control of the COVID-19 Pandemic

Dr. Abba Gumel
Foundation Professor of Mathematics
School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences
Barrett Honors College Faculty
Arizona State University

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Abstract:
The novel coronavirus that emerged in December of 2019 (COVID-19), which started as an outbreak of pneumonia of unknown cause in the city of Wuhan, has become the most important public health and socio-economic challenge humans have faced since the 1918 H1N1 influenza pandemic. Within weeks of its emergence, COVID-19 spread to every part of the world, accounting for over 103 million confirmed cases and 2.2 million deaths (as of February 1, 2021), in addition to incurring severe economic burden, social disruptions and other human stresses, globally. In this talk, I will discuss our work on the mathematical modeling and analysis of the spread and control of COVID-19, with emphasis on the assessment of the population-level impact of the three currently-available anti-COVID vaccines (namely, the Pfizer-BioNTech, Moderna and Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccines). Specifically, we will explore conditions for the elimination of the pandemic using the vaccines (vis a vis achieving vaccine-derived herd immunity) and/or their combination with other nonpharmaceutical interventions, such as face masks usage and social-distancing.

Speaker Bio:
Dr. Abba Gumel is a Foundation Professor of Mathematics at the School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences, Arizona State University. He uses mathematical modeling approaches and analysis to study the transmission dynamics of emerging and re-emerging diseases of public health importance.

Intended Audience:
Undergraduates, graduates, and experts. Those with interest in the topic.

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The Math Modeling Seminar will recur each week throughout the semester on the same day and time. Find out more about upcoming speakers on the Mathematical Modeling Seminar Series webpage.